Bank credit and macro-policy orientation
Opening the session, Mr. Pham Thanh Ha, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), highlighted that the Party and State have set an ambitious growth target: a growth rate of 8% or higher in 2025, transitioning into double-digit growth during the 2026-2030 period. This trajectory aims to elevate Vietnam into the upper-middle-income group by 2030 and the high-income group by 2045.
The Deputy Governor emphasized that these strategic goals reflect the nation’s aspirations. To realize them, the economy requires continuous, stable, and sustainable high-speed growth. Double-digit growth is particularly crucial as it provides a solid foundation to rapidly bridge the development gap with advanced nations while enhancing national autonomy and international integration.
Mr. Pham Thanh Ha, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Photo: VGP/HT
From a fiscal management perspective, Deputy Minister of Finance Do Thanh Trung noted that double-digit growth demands a fundamental shift in both mindset and the methodology of mobilizing and allocating resources.
"The guiding principle is to treat internal resources as a long-term strategy and external resources as a vital, breakthrough catalyst," Mr. Trung stated. He added that while mobilizing sufficient capital is a major task, ensuring efficient and transparent allocation to generate high added value is even more critical. Fiscal policy must continue to foster long-term growth, prioritizing budget spending on development investment and social security, while coordinating closely with monetary policy to ensure macroeconomic stability.
Providing insight into the primary funding channel, Ms. Ha Thu Giang, Director General of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors (SBV), reported that as of late November 2025, total outstanding credit reached over 18.2 quadrillion VND, up 16.56% from the end of 2024.
However, she also highlighted significant bottlenecks: the banking system remains under immense pressure to supply capital due to the disproportionate development of the financial market. Short-term deposits still account for 80% of total funding, creating term-mismatch risks when financing large-scale, long-term national projects.
Unlocking capital markets and restructuring resources
Experts at the forum focused on the urgent need to develop capital markets to diversify investment sources and de-risk the banking sector.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Banks Association. Photo: VGP/HT
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice Chairman cum Secretary General of the Vietnam Banks Association (VNBA), warned that over-reliance on bank credit would heighten systemic risks. "Budgetary capital through public investment must work in tandem with bank capital to support manufacturing and business enterprises, thereby facilitating high growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability," Mr. Hung remarked.
Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and a member of the Prime Minister’s National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, proposed a new approach for the upcoming period. He suggested that Vietnam must shift its development model from being capital-and-labor-intensive to one driven by science, technology, innovation, and productivity.
He recommended a simultaneous "3i" strategy: Investment, Infusion (of technology), and Innovation.
Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, Outlook 2026, during the specialized session on finance and banking - Photo: VGP/HT
According to Dr. Luc’s analysis, to achieve an average GDP growth of 9-10% during 2026-2030, the total investment capital of society needs to reach approximately 39% of GDP. Currently, the structure is imbalanced: Vietnam's credit-to-GDP ratio stood at 135.7% at the end of 2024—among the highest in the region—and is expected to rise to 147% by late 2025.
To address these structural bottlenecks, Dr. Luc proposed eight groups of breakthrough solutions, including:
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Developing a balanced financial market, prioritizing capital and derivative markets.
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Pilot-testing carbon markets, international financial centers, and digital asset markets.
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Resolutely upgrading the stock market status to reduce the burden on bank credit.
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Establishing specialized funds, such as a Green Transformation Support Fund and Venture Capital Funds.
Representing investment institutions, Ms. Nguyen Hoai Thu, Deputy CEO of VinaCapital Fund Management, noted that the scale of the capital market remains modest and has yet to fulfill its role as a provider of medium-to-long-term funding. She emphasized that a robust capital market is the "missing piece" required to fuel the next phase of Vietnam's economic miracle.
by VNBA News
