Bond market: Capital flows skewed toward banks, real estate bears the pressure of maturities

The corporate bond market is showing initial signs of recovery after a prolonged slump, but the overall picture still reveals a clear divergence between sectors, especially banking and real estate.

According to a report by MBS Research, the total value of corporate bond issuances in February 2026 reached approximately VND 4.8 trillion, a 29% increase compared to the previous month and over 100% compared to the same period last year. For the first two months of the year, the cumulative issuance volume reached approximately VND 8.5 trillion, a 7.4% increase compared to the same period last year.

Notably, the banking sector continued to lead the market, accounting for 65% of the total issuance value, equivalent to over 5.5 trillion VND. Although this figure decreased by 27.4% compared to the same period last year, it still shows relative stability in the capital raising activities of credit institutions.

Several major banks have played a leading role in bond issuance since the beginning of the year, including BID with 3.3 trillion VND and CTG with 2.2 trillion VND. These bank bond issues mainly have long maturities of 7-10 years, with an average interest rate of around 6.8% per year, a relatively low rate compared to the general market, reflecting the creditworthiness and good access to capital of this group.

In contrast to the booming banking sector, the real estate sector is significantly scaling back its issuance activities. In the first two months of the year, this sector recorded only two issuances with a total value of approximately 270 billion VND, from a few companies such as Khai Hoan Land and Thien Phuc Invest.

It is noteworthy that despite the small issuance size, the interest rate on real estate bonds reached 12.9% per year, almost double that of the banking sector. This indicates a higher level of risk and reflects the urgent capital needs of businesses in the context of shrinking fundraising channels.

The divergence is not only evident in issuance activities but also in the pressure of bond maturing in the coming period. According to MBS, approximately 10 trillion VND worth of bonds will mature in March 2026 alone, a 25% increase compared to the total value maturing in the first two months of the year.

More worryingly, pressure will intensify sharply in the second quarter of 2026, when the total value of maturing bonds is estimated to reach 59 trillion VND. Of this, the real estate sector accounts for 79%, equivalent to more than 46 trillion VND, a very large figure in the context of a still challenging market.

Alongside the pressure of maturing bonds, early bond buybacks remain low. In the first two months of the year, the total value of buybacks reached only about 3.6 trillion VND, a decrease of 80% compared to the same period last year. This indicates that the ability of businesses to proactively manage debt remains limited, especially in the non-banking sector.

Payment risks are also becoming increasingly apparent. As of the end of February 2026, the total value of bonds with overdue payments was estimated at approximately VND 18.7 trillion, equivalent to 1.3% of the total outstanding debt in the market. In February alone, an additional 4 bond codes experienced delays in payment, totaling approximately VND 694 billion.

Another factor that could impact the market is the renewed upward trend in interest rates. The yield on 10-year government bonds has now reached 4.12% per annum, the highest since March 2023. This development could lead to increased funding costs, thereby putting further pressure on corporate bond issuance in the coming period.

From a secondary market perspective, liquidity in February reached approximately VND 75.4 trillion, equivalent to about VND 5 trillion per day. Although lower than the previous month, it was still a significant increase compared to the same period last year, indicating that capital flows continue to show considerable interest in the bond market, especially short-term maturities of 1-3 years.

Speaking with reporters, Mr. Han Huu Hau, CEO of Hy Maxpro, commented that the corporate bond market is currently in a "rebalancing" phase, as capital flows tend to shift towards issuers with solid financial foundations, transparency, and good debt repayment capabilities.

According to Mr. Hau, the banking sector continues to play a key role in "anchoring" market confidence thanks to its high credit quality and stable capital mobilization capabilities. Meanwhile, real estate businesses will face significant debt restructuring pressure in 2026, especially in the second quarter, when the volume of maturing bonds peaks.

"In the context of rising interest rates and increasingly selective capital flows, bond-issuing businesses, especially in the real estate sector, need to proactively develop long-term financial plans and improve information transparency to regain investor confidence," Mr. Hau emphasized.

Overall, although the corporate bond market is showing signs of recovery, risks remain, particularly the significant pressure of maturity and the divergence between industry sectors. In the coming period, market developments will depend heavily on the debt management capabilities of businesses as well as macroeconomic conditions, especially interest rates and cash flow in the financial market.